It is yet to break out below the last low at 1.1225, but it probably will eventually. So much for a double bottom.

mlawson71 wrote: Fri Mar 08, 2019 3:29 am It is yet to break out below the last low at 1.1225, but it probably will eventually. So much for a double bottom.

hopes it just a temporary drop :shock:

moey_dw wrote: Fri Mar 08, 2019 7:42 am

hopes it just a temporary drop :shock:

I don't know about that, I heard opinions it may reach 1.1000.

EUR/USD: 10-year US-German yield spread hits 3-month high ahead of US CPI

• EUR's recovery from 21-month lows reached last Thursday contradict the widening of the US-DE yield differential.
• A better-than-expected US CPI will likely push EUR back into the bearish territory below 1.12.

EUR/USD's recovery from recent lows below 1.12 could be short-lived, as the yield differential is widening in the EUR-negative manner.

The pair is currently trading at 1.1260, having hit a high of 1.1274 earlier today. The recovery from the low of 1.1176 seen on Thursday is likely a result of risk reset in equities and more importantly, contradicts the widening of the US-German bond yield differential.

The spread between the 10-year US and German (DE) government bond yields is currently seen at 259.2 basis points - the highest level since Dec. 18. Notably, the spread is up five basis points from the low of 254 basis points seen on Friday. So, EUR/USD's bounce from 21-month lows looks like a bear trap.

The benchmark bond yield spread may widen further in the EUR-negative manner if the US consumer price index for February, scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT, betters estimate.

Technically speaking, the move back above 1.12 has weakened the bearish case put forward by Thursday's close at 1.1193. With US-DE bond yield spread rising, the EUR is not out of the woods yet and could again close below 1.12 on strong US data.

That would imply a downside break of the multi-month trading range of 1.12-1.15 and open the doors to 1.10.
Source: https://forex-station.com (Chart) & https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-1 ... 1903120400 (Article)

moey_dw wrote: Fri Mar 08, 2019 7:42 am

hopes it just a temporary drop :shock:

your prediction is a high probability one, as EUR hit right on to the multiyear trendline after ECB meeting, and now has stopped, its downward escalation from that trendline.

Yes, it was just temporary, thankfully. I was concerned there for a moment.

mlawson71 wrote: Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:01 am Yes, it was just temporary, thankfully. I was concerned there for a moment.

Phew!

I have a long position open, I really hope it will continue rallying. :shock:

mlawson71 wrote: Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:22 am I have a long position open, I really hope it will continue rallying. :shock:

Same! Went long at 1.12627. Let's see how she goes but I might close mine soon :cray:

mlawson71 wrote: I have a long position open, I really hope it will continue rallying. :shock:

It should. As low hit after ECB meeting was exact hit on multi year trend line.
This kind of heavy trend line needs big trigger to break.

And trigger like ECB can not break it, then probably Mr. Market has already factored in European slowdown, and is factoring in upcoming European economic recovery.

And Mr.Market is always right and is well ahead of everyone can imagine.