Daily Forex Analysis – EUR/USD Steady and GBP/USD Gains.​

EUR/USD: Gains Capped Ahead of Trump’s Inauguration
The EUR/USD pair has recovered part of its previous session losses, trading near 1.0280 during Asian hours. However, its upside remains limited as market caution ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration strengthens the US Dollar. Traders closely monitor Trump’s anticipated executive orders, which are expected to address policies such as tariffs, tax cuts, and immigration reforms. These factors have increased US Treasury yields, providing additional support to the USD.

Key Influences on EUR/USD:
Federal Reserve Outlook: The Fed is expected to maintain interest rates at its January meeting, but markets anticipate rate hikes resuming in March, depending on the extent of Trump’s policy implementations.
ECB Dovish Expectations: Persistent dovish sentiment surrounds the European Central Bank (ECB), with markets pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut at each of the next four ECB meetings. Concerns about subdued inflationary pressures in the Eurozone weigh on the Euro.

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: Moving Averages:
Exponential: MA 10: 1.0302 (Bullish), MA 20: 1.0335 (Bearish), MA 50: 1.0455 (Bearish)
Simple: MA 10: 1.0293 (Bullish), MA 20: 1.0332 (Bearish), MA 50: 1.0439 (Bearish)
RSI (Relative Strength Index): 44.68 – Neutral
Stochastic Oscillator: 44.18 – Neutral
Resistance Levels: R1: 1.0551, R2: 1.0619
Support Levels: S1: 1.0332, S2: 1.0265
Trade Suggestion:

Limit Sell: 1.0351
Take Profit: 1.0216
Stop Loss: 1.0456

EUR/USD Drops Amid Tariff Threats and GBP/USD Weakens​

INTRODUCTION​

Global currency markets are under pressure, driven by escalating geopolitical uncertainties, central bank policy shifts, and tariff threats. Key currency pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and USD/CHF are reacting to these developments. This article focuses on the EUR/USD’s decline due to tariff concerns and GBP/USD’s weakness as the Bank of England (BoE) hints at an interest rate cut. Keywords such as “EUR/USD,” “GBP/USD,” “tariff threats,” and “central bank policies” ensure relevance for search engines and drive maximum traffic.

EUR/USD Declines Amid Trump’s Tariff Threats​

The EUR/USD pair is trading near 1.0410, inching closer to the 1.0400 level during Thursday’s Asian session. This decline is attributed to U.S. President Trump’s proposed tariffs on the Eurozone, Canada, Mexico, and China. The European Commission’s preliminary Consumer Confidence report for January, along with U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data, could further impact the pair.

Key Drivers:​
Tariff Threats: Trump’s discussion of 25% tariffs has heightened fears of an economic slowdown in the Eurozone.
ECB Rate Cut Expectations: Analysts predict a 25-basis-point cut across four upcoming European Central Bank meetings.
USD Strength: Rising U.S. Treasury yields and limited Federal Reserve rate cuts provide support for the U.S. Dollar, pressuring the Euro further.

Technical Overview:​
Moving Averages (MA):
Exponential: MA10: 1.0360 | Bullish | MA20: 1.0361 | Bullish
Simple: MA10: 1.0330 | Bullish | MA20: 1.0337 | Bullish
Indicators:
RSI: 51.67 (Buy Zone) | Stochastic: 85.04 (Neutral)
Resistance Levels: R1: 1.0551 | R2: 1.0619
Support Levels: S1: 1.0332 | S2: 1.0265
Trade Suggestion:

Limit Buy: 1.0376 | Take Profit: 1.0458 | Stop Loss: 1.0331

GBP/USD Weakens as BoE Considers Rate Cuts​

The British Pound trades cautiously amid concerns over rising borrowing costs and the BoE’s dovish stance. December’s higher-than-expected Public Sector Net Borrowing has intensified fears of slowed economic growth in the UK.

Key Drivers:​
BoE Rate Cut Expectations: Market participants anticipate a rate cut in February, reflecting the UK’s subdued growth outlook.
Tariff Concerns: Higher U.S. tariffs could negatively impact global trade, further weighing on the Pound.
Rising Borrowing Costs: The UK’s 30-year gilt yields have surged to 5.47%, their highest in over 26 years.

Technical Overview:​ Moving Averages (MA):
Exponential: MA10: 1.2302 | Bearish | MA20: 1.2356 | Bearish
Simple: MA10: 1.2255 | Bullish | MA20: 1.2357 | Bearish
Indicators:
RSI: 42.37 (Neutral) | Stochastic: 46.91 (Neutral)
Resistance Levels: R1: 1.2727 | R2: 1.2807
Support Levels: S1: 1.2471 | S2: 1.2391
Trade Suggestion:

Limit Sell: 1.2367 | Take Profit: 1.2187 | Stop Loss: 1.2478
AUD/USD Under Pressure Despite Improved Sentiment​
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EUR/USD Gains Expected and GBP/USD Sell-on-Rallies.​

INTRODUCTION​

The forex market is poised for significant movement this week, with the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs in focus. Monetary policy expectations, geopolitical developments, and critical economic data will drive market sentiment. Here is a comprehensive outlook on the two key pairs and additional insights into USD/JPY and AUD/USD trends.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook: Gains Expected but Likely Short-Lived​
The EUR/USD pair has shown strength, closing the week above the critical 1.0500 mark and hitting a five-week high. This bullish momentum stems from several factors:

Weakening US Dollar: The US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen to the 107.30 zone, pressured by growing Federal Reserve rate cuts expectations.
Eurozone Bond Yields: A rebound in German bund yields, particularly in mid- and long-term segments, has supported the Euro.
Risk Sentiment: Improved global risk sentiment and speculation around US trade policies have further weighed the Dollar.

ECB’s Monetary Policy​
The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to adopt a cautious stance with a possible rate cut. ECB President Christine Lagarde’s emphasis on balancing inflation targets while avoiding instability supports this incremental approach.

Technical Analysis​
Moving Averages:

Exponential: MA10: 1.0388 (Bullish), MA20: 1.0376 (Bullish), MA50: 1.0456 (Bullish)
Simple: MA10: 1.0357 (Bullish), MA20: 1.0342 (Bullish), MA50: 1.0430 (Bullish)

Indicators:
RSI: 60.85 (Buy Zone, Bullish)
Stochastic Oscillator: 86.67 (Neutral)

Key Levels:
Resistance: R1: 1.0551, R2: 1.0619
Support: S1: 1.0332, S2: 1.0265

Trade Suggestion​
Limit Buy: 1.0440
Take Profit: 1.0593
Stop Loss: 1.0357

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Sell-on-Rallies Opportunity​

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Forex Market Volatility Rises as Traders Await Fed Decision; USD Strengthens Amid Risk Aversion.​

EUR/USD Stabilizes and GBP/USD Slips as Fed Decision Nears​

Market Overview​

Currency markets remain highly volatile as traders brace for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) upcoming policy decision. The US Dollar (USD) strengthens, driven by risk aversion and tariff threats from former President Donald Trump, pressuring major currencies like the Euro (EUR), British Pound (GBP), Australian Dollar (AUD), and Canadian Dollar (CAD). Central bank policies and key economic data will shape further movements in the forex market.

EUR/USD Stabilizes Near 1.0450 but Faces Resistance​

The EUR/USD pair stabilizes near 1.0450 after a two-day decline but struggles to gain momentum as risk-off sentiment dominates.

The US Dollar finds support from expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates steady in the 4.25%-4.50% range. However, all eyes remain on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference, which could provide signals on future monetary policy.

Meanwhile, the Euro remains under pressure, with markets expecting the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.75% on Thursday. Concerns over the Eurozone’s sluggish economy and the ECB’s inflation target reinforce bearish sentiment.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Exponential Moving Averages (EMA):
10-day EMA: 1.0411 | Bullish crossover
20-day EMA: 1.0393 | Bullish crossover
50-day EMA: 1.0455 | Bearish crossover

Relative Strength Index (RSI): 51.70 (Buy Zone | Bullish)
Stochastic Oscillator: 75.23 (Neutral)

Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.0551 (R1), 1.0619 (R2)
Support: 1.0332 (S1), 1.0265 (S2)

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy @ 1.0354 | Take Profit @ 1.0533 | Stop Loss @ 1.0267

GBP/USD Slips Below 1.2450 as Dollar Strengthens​
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Forex Markets Await Key US Data: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY & AUD/USD Show Mixed Signals.​

EUR/USD Consolidates Near Key Levels​

Market Overview:
The EUR/USD pair continues to trade within a narrow range around the 1.0375-1.0390 zone, struggling to maintain momentum after rebounding from the 1.0200 region—its lowest since January 13. Mixed fundamental factors, including US economic data and ECB policy decisions, are driving this consolidation.

Key Factors Influencing EUR/USD:​

US Labor Market Data: The recent Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) signaled a cooling US labor market, reinforcing expectations of potential Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts.
ECB’s Dovish Stance: Despite a rise in the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) to 2.5% annually, the ECB’s dovish outlook limits bullish momentum.
Geopolitical Concerns: Potential US tariffs on EU goods under former President Trump’s trade policies add to investor caution.

Technical Analysis:
Moving Averages:
Exponential (EMA): MA 10 (1.0388 – Bullish), MA 20 (1.0385 – Bullish), MA 50 (1.0440 – Bearish)
Simple (SMA): MA 10 (1.0411 – Bearish), MA 20 (1.0366 – Bullish), MA 50 (1.0411 – Bearish)
RSI: 50.62 (Bullish Zone)

Stochastic Oscillator: 50.14 (Neutral)
Resistance Levels: R1: 1.0492, R2: 1.0576
Support Levels: S1: 1.0220, S2: 1.0136

Trade Suggestion:

Entry Point: Limit Buy at 1.0353
Take Profit: 1.0468
Stop Loss: 1.0293

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EUR/USD Near 1.0500, GBP/USD Holds Gains, JPY Under Pressure.​

The forex market remains cautious ahead of key economic data releases, with major currency pairs responding to shifting fundamentals. The EUR/USD pair hovers around the 1.0500 mark as the US Dollar gains momentum, while GBP/USD trades near a two-month high amid mixed signals from the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, USD/JPY remains under pressure, with Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike expectations limiting losses. The AUD/USD pair declines slightly as the US Dollar remains firm ahead of key economic reports.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS ​
EUR/USD holds near 1.0500 ahead of key PMI data.
GBP/USD trades near a two-month high amid market optimism.
USD/JPY remains under pressure despite BoJ rate hike hopes.
AUD/USD edges lower as US Dollar stays firm.
EUR/USD Holds Near 1.0500 Ahead of PMI Data​
The EUR/USD pair remains range-bound around 1.0500 in early European trading on Friday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar. Traders exercise caution ahead of the preliminary Eurozone and US PMI releases, keeping the pair in consolidation mode.

Key Market Factors:​
US Dollar Strength: A broad recovery in the US Dollar Index (DXY) has pressured the euro, with investors closely watching US economic data and Federal Reserve policy signals.
Trade Policy Uncertainty: Recent delays in US tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports have created uncertainty, while tensions with China remain unresolved.
Technical Analysis: The daily chart suggests a potential bearish reversal, with EUR/USD trading within a rising wedge pattern, signaling declining buying pressure.
Technical Overview:
Moving Averages (Bullish Crossover)

EMA 10: 1.0446 | EMA 20: 1.0422 | EMA 50: 1.0435
RSI: 58.31 | Buy Zone | Neutral
Stochastic Oscillator: 85.12 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Support & Resistance Levels:

R1: 1.0492 | R2: 1.0576
S1: 1.0220 | S2: 1.0136

Trade Suggestion:​

Limit Buy: 1.0467 | Take Profit: 1.0534 | Stop Loss: 1.0431

GBP/USD Trades Near Two-Month High Amid Fed Uncertainty​

GBP/USD remains resilient, hovering around 1.2670 after retreating slightly from its two-month high of 1.2674. A weaker US Dollar, combined with better-than-expected UK economic data, supports the pair.

Key Market Factors:​

US Jobless Claims Data: The US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 219,000 (vs. 215,000 expected), weighing on the Dollar.
Bank of England (BoE) Commentary: Governor Andrew Bailey warned of sluggish economic growth, but recent strong UK CPI data has supported Sterling.
Trade Sentiment Boost: Optimism regarding US-China trade negotiations has also helped sustain GBP/USD at higher levels.
Technical Overview:
Moving Averages (Bullish Crossover)

EMA 10: 1.2577 | EMA 20: 1.2519 | EMA 50: 1.2517
RSI: 63.85 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator: 93.94 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Support & Resistance Levels:

R1: 1.2538 | R2: 1.2650
S1: 1.2174 | S2: 1.2062

Trade Suggestion:​
Limit Buy: 1.2628 | Take Profit: 1.2730 | Stop Loss: 1.2571


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EUR/USD Rebounds Above 1.0400 as US Dollar Weakens Post-PCE Data; Traders Eye Eurozone CPI. - 3/3/2025​

EUR/USD: Rebounds Above 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone HICP Data​
EUR/USD breaks its three-day losing streak, climbing above 1.0400 in anticipation of key Eurozone inflation data. During Monday’s Asian session, the pair hovered around 1.0410, supported by a weaker US Dollar after the latest PCE inflation report aligned with expectations. The monthly headline PCE remained steady at 0.3%, while core PCE edged up to 0.3% from December’s 0.2%. However, rising US-China trade tensions may strengthen the USD as a safe-haven asset, potentially capping EUR/USD gains.

Additionally, Germany’s higher-than-expected February flash HICP inflation data provided some support to the Euro. However, the European Central Bank (ECB) is still expected to maintain its dovish stance in its upcoming policy meeting.

Technical Overview​ Moving Averages:​

Exponential:
MA 10: 1.0431 | Bearish
MA 20: 1.0426 | Bearish
MA 50: 1.0435 | Bearish

Simple:
MA 10: 1.0447 | Bearish
MA 20: 1.0422 | Bearish
MA 50: 1.0387 | Bullish

Indicators:​
RSI: 48.69 | Neutral
Stochastic Oscillator: 41.67 | Neutral

Resistance & Support Levels:​
R1: 1.0493 | R2: 1.0568
S1: 1.0249 | S2: 1.0174

Market Sentiment: Bearish

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1.0443 | Take Profit: 1.0359 | Stop Loss: 1.0501

GBP/USD: Sterling Gains on Russia-Ukraine Truce Hopes​

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EUR/USD Holds Below 1.0950 as Trade War Escalates; GBP/USD and USD/CAD React to Key Economic Data. 18-3- 2025​

The foreign exchange market remains under pressure as geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and central bank decisions shape sentiment. The US Dollar’s performance is mixed, with concerns over economic growth and upcoming Federal Reserve policy decisions driving market movements. Meanwhile, the Euro, Pound, and Canadian Dollar face key domestic catalysts that could influence near-term trends.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS​
EUR/USD Stays Below 1.0950 Amid Trade War Concerns.
GBP/USD Dips Below 1.3000 Despite Limited Downside Pressure.
USD/CAD Trades Near 1.4300 Before Canadian CPI Release.
USD/CHF Remains Flat Around 0.8800 Awaiting Fed Decision.

EUR/USD Analysis​

Market Overview​
EUR/USD remains below 1.0950, with optimism surrounding a potential German fiscal agreement potentially helping to curb further losses.

During the early Asian session on Tuesday, the pair trades around 1.0915, experiencing modest losses due to escalating trade tensions. US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose additional tariffs on European Union goods, including a proposed 200% levy on European wine and spirits, has heightened tensions. In response, the EU has outlined plans for retaliation, which could pressure the Euro further.

However, losses may be cushioned by a weaker US Dollar amid concerns over a potential economic slowdown in the United States. Additionally, optimism around Germany’s fiscal policy developments might limit losses for the Euro, with expectations that the proposed €500 billion infrastructure fund and debt restructuring agreement will gain approval.

Technical Overview Moving Averages​
Exponential:
MA 10: 1.0825 | Bullish
MA 20: 1.0716 | Bullish
MA 50: 1.0583 | Bullish
Simple:
MA 10: 1.0859 | Bullish
MA 20: 1.0665 | Bullish
MA 50: 1.0491 | Bullish
Indicators​
RSI: 70.78 | Buy Zone
Stochastic Oscillator: 92.23 | Neutral
Resistance & Support Levels​
R1: 1.0493 | R2: 1.0568
S1: 1.0249 | S2: 1.0174
Trade Suggestion:

Limit Buy: 1.0721 | Take Profit: 1.0950 | Stop Loss: 1.0596
GBP/USD Analysis​

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EUR/USD Rebounds Amid US Concerns, GBP/USD Strengthens on BoE Hawkishness​

The forex market remains volatile as investors shift their focus to upcoming PMI data and evolving trade policies. The EUR/USD pair stabilizes near 1.0840 amid concerns over a potential US economic slowdown, while GBP/USD maintains a positive tone due to the Bank of England’s (BoE) hawkish stance. Meanwhile, USD/JPY hovers around 150.00 as weaker Japanese PMI data puts pressure on the yen, and AUD/USD sees a recovery fueled by robust Australian PMI figures.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS ​

EUR/USD Rebounds on US Slowdown Concerns, PMI Data Ahead.
GBP/USD Rises on BoE Hawkishness, Market Awaits PMI Results.
USD/JPY Steady Near 150.00 Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty.
AUD/USD Gains Strength After Positive Domestic PMI Figures.

EUR/USD Climbs Toward 1.0850 Amid US Economic Concerns​

EUR/USD has rebounded to approximately 1.0850, reversing a three-day decline during Monday’s early Asian session. Concerns over a potential US economic slowdown, driven by trade policies under President Donald Trump, are weighing on the US Dollar, thereby supporting the pair.

Key Factors Influencing EUR/USD:​

US Trade Policy: The White House is revising its tariff strategy ahead of the April 2 implementation. Reports indicate a shift toward reciprocal tariffs on key US trading partners.
Eurozone Economic Risks: ECB President Christine Lagarde has highlighted downside risks due to ongoing trade disputes.
Upcoming Data: Investors are closely watching the preliminary March Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for the Eurozone, Germany, and the United States, set for release later today.

Technical Overview
Moving Averages (Exponential)
MA 10: 1.0840 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
MA 20: 1.0762 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
MA 50: 1.0624 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 60.93 | Buy Zone | Bullish
Stochastic Oscillator: 73.29 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance & Support Levels

R1: 1.0493 | R2: 1.0568
S1: 1.0249 | S2: 1.0174
Trade Suggestion:

Limit Buy: 1.0710
Take Profit: 1.0919
Stop Loss: 1.0594

GBP/USD Gains Traction Near 1.2950 as Traders Eye US PMI Data​

GBP/USD has edged higher toward 1.2940 in early European trading, supported by a softer US Dollar. Uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s trade policies and concerns over a potential US economic slowdown are keeping the Greenback subdued.


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EUR/USD Rises on Weak US Data, GBP/USD Struggles After Softer UK Inflation.​

The global currency markets are experiencing heightened volatility, with major forex pairs reacting to key economic data and policy shifts. The EUR/USD strengthens as weak U.S. consumer confidence weighs on the dollar, while GBP/USD remains under pressure following softer UK inflation data. Meanwhile, AUD/USD benefits from record-breaking copper prices, and USD/CHF stabilizes as the U.S. dollar gains strength amid market caution and hawkish Fed sentiment.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS ​

EUR/USD Gains as US Consumer Confidence Hits Low.
GBP/USD Weakens After Softer UK Inflation Data Release.
AUD Gains Amid Copper Price Surge to Record Highs.
USD/CHF Steady as Market Caution Boosts US Dollar.

Markets in Focus Today​
EUR/USD: Gains Momentum Amid Weak U.S. Consumer Confidence​
EUR/USD advances above 1.0750 as disappointing U.S. economic data and uncertainty over Donald Trump’s trade policies weigh on the dollar. Investors await the U.S. Durable Goods Orders report for February, which could provide further direction.

Key Market Insights:​
U.S. Consumer Confidence: Plunged to its lowest level in over four years, indicating growing household concerns.
Trump’s Trade Policies: Uncertainty over reciprocal tariffs may further pressure the Greenback.
ECB Outlook: Dovish rhetoric from ECB officials suggests room for rate cuts, potentially capping the Euro’s gains.
Technical Overview​
Moving Averages (Exponential & Simple): Mixed signals, with short-term bearish pressure but long-term bullish outlook.
RSI: 56.49 (Bullish)
Stochastic Oscillator: 24.83 (Neutral)
Resistance Levels: R1: 1.0493, R2: 1.0568
Support Levels: S1: 1.0249, S2: 1.0174

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy at 1.0717 | Take Profit: 1.0887 | Stop Loss: 1.0629

GBP/USD: Under Pressure Following Soft UK Inflation Data​

Daily Expert Market Analysis