To sum up—so I don't spam
—avoid trading "without a pattern"; the statistics are against you.The "Broken P" pattern appears to be the strongest signal for a long position (offering the best MFE and target-to-stop-loss ratio).
The "Thin Bottom" pattern offers the greatest movement potential (highest MFE) but requires a wider stop-loss (high MAE).
The 80% rule (WR)—applied when the market opens outside the Value Area (VA)—represents your greatest edge in this dataset; if the price opens outside the VA, look for a trading opportunity back toward the VA.
Legend:
n: Number of occurrences (samples).
%up: Percentage of cases where the price continued upward (or rebounded upward) following the formation of the pattern.
z ret: Average Z-score (statistical significance of the price retracement/return).
MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion – the maximum favorable movement (how far the price moved in your favor).
MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion – the maximum unfavorable movement (against you).
+1st / -1st: The ratio of reaching the first target (+1) versus hitting the first stop-loss (-1). For example, 8% 5% means that in 8% of cases, the price reached the +1 target before hitting the -1 stop-loss in 5% of cases.
