More fun facts on energy, the US is the world's leading producer of oil so little wonder they don’t want or need the Iran war to end.
Meanwhile the EU paid an extra €113 billion for the same amount of natural gas as they paid a year ago, and of course the US is now Europe’s main supplier.

So all in all the US is doing really well out of both these wars, wars that the US could end tomorrow if they really wanted.

And recent Fed M2 money supply in circulation figures shows that the Fed is printing, all be it very quietly. So plenty of extra cash for the US stock market which is riding high and never mind the bond market, for now at least as the US 10 year yield glides past 5.3%.

As mentioned in a previous post 82% of the stocks listed in the S&P500 are actually down on the year while all the top 10 stocks other than Berkshire Hathaway are AI companies. So the S&P looks great forever reaching higher but actually most of it is under water.

US PCE inflation came in at 3% yesterday so still above Fed target but still some time to go before the oil crisis seeps through, note that the 2020 Covid disruption took until mid 2021 to start to show up in official data though everyone else saw it coming long before.

Meanwhile consumer confidence data continues to plunge, the powers that be need this data because the decision makers are so distant from real people they actually have no idea what life is actually like for the average person.

The data also shows that people are still spending though they are trading down and stocking up on basics while prices are still relatively low.

Trump is of course screaming that the Fed should be lowering interest rates, not hiking (BTW NFP tomorrow).


Flydubai Panic; Kaliningrad Nuclear Warning; Tokayev humiliates Merz





Why war with Russia is inevitable. It may be a European extinction event.