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Re: Observation Journal

Guntur, Tue Sep 01, 2026 8:57 am

I put a bunch of indicators on the chart (all available here on Forex Station.)
The 1st setup had a deep retracement. If we used the ATR from when price touched the EMA as the SL (~550), it would’ve ended in a loss. But if we used the ATR from when the arrow appeared (~670), it would’ve been safe. Price then moved up around 1,300 pips (points), so a 1:2 RR was achievable. In sub-window 1, the ddz Ehler Fisher Transform (13) showed divergence, which could have been used as an early warning for the deep retracement. The Averages rainbow heatmap (default) in sub-window 2 and Koncorde (default) were also in agreement, confirming the momentary momentum change.

The 2nd setup was a loss (SL ~570), but could’ve been recovered quickly with a flip trade since the down move was around 2,500 pips. There was no divergence warning in sub-window 1, but Kiosotto (default) had spiked, warning us of a reversal.
The 3rd setup was a loss (SL ~800), but could’ve been recovered quickly with a flip trade since the up move was around 2,500 pips from the EMA. Both the divergence warning and Kiosotto spike were present, so instead of placing a limit order, we could’ve set a buy stop to catch the momentum.
The 4th and 5th setups were good (though a bit high risk)—the 4th setup could net a 1:2 RR, while the 5th got 1:1. The 6th setup was clearly a loss from the get-go due to both the Kiosotto spike and the EFT divergence.
The 7th setup was good (1:2 RR), though the heatmap and Koncorde might have shaken my confidence a bit. The 8th was a loss (SL ~330), but could’ve been recovered quickly since the down move was around 660 pips.
I knew this setup was going to fail (divergence and Kiosotto spike), so the better choice would've been to place a buy stop. But even if I took the limit order and lost (SL ~450), I could've flipped the trade since the up move was around 950 pips. Notice that price bounced off the M15 EMA20, meaning that this was a higher TF setup.
This was a painful setup to watch. 1st scenario: I noticed the divergence and spike, placed a buy stop with a 1:1 ratio, and watched my floating profit drop from ~700 pips to -700 pips before it finally reached TP (~820 pips).

2nd scenario: I stuck with placing a sell limit and watched the trade go from a ~-700 pip drawdown into a +700 pip floating profit, only to reverse completely and hit SL. The flip trade failed because the momentum was gone, and the 4431.50 area turned into a consolidation zone. However, price eventually reached the flip trade's TP (~4440.00).
The 11th setup was a no-go since price didn't touch the EMA on the pullback. Side note: On impulsive moves, we could switch to an LWMA to catch the retracement. The 12th setup was another textbook flip trade (backed by divergence and a spike) for a 1:1 RR.
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