Very good question. Energy and fertiliser shortages are radiating out from the center of the disputed region chiefly in Asian countries first who have much smaller storage infrastructure. You don’t tend to bother when the dealer is right next door.
But the tsunami is radiating out and will soon reach Europe and the Americas.
In the UK there will be physical oil shortages within 2-3 weeks and talk is starting of a coming need for energy rationing which will accelerate deindustrialisation which started with the introduction of sanctions against Russia in 2022.
US and Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer at Carlyle Energy Pathways,
says that we are going to have a horrific oil shortage in America, ‘The physical market is really going to bite sometime in the next couple of weeks.’
And not just oil but fertiliser too, the US Carnegie Foundation have warned of global food shortages coming and are recommending a relaxation of sanctions on Russia fertiliser exports to match the postponement of Russian oil sanctions.
But the lack of any discussion by political leaders throughout western Europe shows a real wish to bury heads in the sand and pretend we are not facing a very serious dilemma.
In Japan the government seems to have agreed to comply with Iranian demands to either pay a fee or pay in Chinese currency or do both, whatever, the price is small compared to the devastation that would occur if no shipments come through.
I wish the European governments would wake up and do the necessary to secure emergency shipments from Russia before there is major hardship here. But our leaders seem to be too weak to bite the bullet, the reality is that without Qatar LNG and if the US decides to reduce exports western Europe will suffer severe shortages.
STOP PRESS: Ursula van der Crazy has just said yesterday that perhaps it's time for the EU to rethink its ban on Russian energy products. WOW.
An AI summary of the current global situation:
Countries with Active Rationing or Usage Curbs;
Sri Lanka:
Utilising a National Fuel Pass QR code system to strictly limit weekly petrol and diesel allowances for vehicles.
Public officials have every Wednesday off as a holiday to reduce transport demand.
Schools have moved to a four-day week.
Bangladesh:
Enforcing fuel rationing and five-hour rolling blackouts for households.
Universities, coaching centres, and colleges have been shut down to conserve electricity.
Pakistan:
Implementing a four-day work week and two-week school closures.
Official government fuel allowances have been slashed by 50%.
Myanmar:
Acute fuel shortages have led to strict rationing for transport and businesses.
Drivers are restricted by "odd-even" vehicle usage rules.
Slovenia:
The first EU member to impose rationing, limiting individuals to 50 litres of fuel per day and businesses to 200 litres.
Philippines:
The government has declared a National Energy Emergency.
Local governments have shifted to four-day work weeks to save fuel.
Egypt:
Ordered early closure of malls, restaurants, and government offices.
Illuminated billboards have been switched off to cut power usage.
Mauritius:
Recently announced energy-saving measures due to low heavy fuel oil stocks.
South Sudan:
The capital, Juba, is facing planned electricity rationing.
Kenya:
Imposed fuel rationing and halted exports to protect dwindling domestic stocks.
Countries with Conservation Orders or Price Measures
South Africa: Introduced controlled fuel allocation measures to prevent panic buying.
Thailand: Ordered civil servants to avoid overseas trips and use stairs instead of elevators.
South Korea: Lifted limits on burning coal for power and is encouraging voluntary fuel conservation.
United Kingdom: Considering emergency contingency plans that include cutting speed limits to save fuel.
Vietnam & Cambodia: Encouraging remote work, rotational shifts, and promoting electric mobility to ease pressure on supply chains.
Meanwhile, back to the Trump problem.
Trump issued a 15 point plan demanding Iran did this and that which the Iranians immediately rejected saying Trump was just negotiating with himself.
We saw Trump do this a dozen times with the Russians, each and every time the Russians just said no.
When you are in a fight and winning you might offer terms to stop the fight saying we will take this but you can keep that. You can also offer terms if you are losing and want the fighting to stop.
The Russians and the Iranians say no to Trump every time because Trump always thinks he’s winning when in fact he’s losing. Trump’s not playing 5D chess, his rampant narcissism simply won’t let him believe he’s ever actually not right and not winning.
That must be an incredibly frustrating way to live. But worse, it enforces the constant need to escalate, and as the analysts in the 2 videos from yesterday said, he keeps finding the Iranians escalating right up there with him.
The top of the escalation ladder is a nuclear strike on Iran. Iran already knows this is the big one, confronting the existential threat they’ve spent decades preparing for and they too can make the whole region unlivable for a long time by destroying all the desalination plants and Israel's nuclear reactors, and they will if it comes to it.
The Iranians say they are willing to negotiate but not with the fraudsters Witkoff and Jared Kushner so Trump is proposing Vance and Rubio instead. We shall see.
In the meantime everything is going just fine;
‘’If the war in Ukraine was a wake-up call for the Western defence industrial base, the first 16 days of the Iran conflict are a fire alarm signalling a crisis of endurance.
The intense consumption of advanced munitions during Operation Epic Fury has revealed a critical vulnerability: a strategically ruinous cost-exchange ratio that the West's industrial capacity is not prepared to sustain.’’
(Royal United Services Institute. British think tank).
The US is said to have fired some 11,000 missiles of all types in the 3 weeks so far and are definitely getting close to running out at this rate.
The US makes 90 tomahawk missiles per YEAR, their stockpile was estimated at 4,000 before this current conflict.
And they make about 700 patriot air defence missiles a year most of which were going to Ukraine as soon as they rolled off the production line though there were some stockpiles throughout other allied countries..
And a new development in the Ukraine conflict is an escalation by Zelensky who is now flying hundreds of drones over the Baltic states to avoid Russian air defences to attack the Leningrad region in north west Russia.
The Estonian defence minister noted the event but did not seem to be complaining but was only keen to emphasise they were Ukrainian drones and did not originate from Estonian.
This can only be done with US targeting guidance and is a major ‘horizontal escalation’ risk with the potential to drag the EU Baltic states into the war.
There is ever increasing pressure from within Russia on Putin to really ratchet up this conflict and put an end to the Kiev regime threat sooner rather than later.
IRAN WAR TIMELINES KEEP CHANGING /Patrick Henningsen & Lt Col Daniel Davis
Is Kyiv Dragging The Baltics Into War?
New Round Of Escalation In The Middle East
MS 2026.03.25EDIT: forgot to add the pics.
See what happens when your laundry drying off the back of the boat catches fire!!
(some say it's actually missile damage)
Smc_Extended with one 
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