So everyone is waiting 48 hrs to see whether this is another bullshit Trump deadline with a trapdoor to allow him to run away like has happened so many times during his presiding over the Ukraine war.

He would issue an ultimatum to Putin or Zelensky, nothing would happen, the deadline would pass and Trump would explain that there were new secret negotiations started up because Putin (or Zelensky) were really, really scared of his ultimatum and these talks needed just a little more time and then everyone eventually forgot all about the deadline that never was.

Is this latest ultimatum going to go the same way? We can only hope so.

Far from achieving Trump's aim of an Iranian capitulation the Iranians have gleefully responded by announcing they will set the region on fire making it uninhabitable for years to come, which it will be if they destroy all the Gulf states’ (and Israel's) desalination plants.

So, same as his previous ultimatums Trump could pretend he’s got some reward and declare the whole emergency (of his own making) over. But what then, he just might walk away and leave the closed Straits problem to the Europeans while the US ramps up their fracking industry, seriously he really might.

But maybe he might just make a deal with the Iranians to relieve sanctions on Iran to get the Straits open again plus other secret commitments to the Iranians that his ego would never let be disclosed.

No matter what actually happens in the Gulf, if Trump starts flogging a dead horse or just walks away, there is happening right now an inevitable paradigm shift in global geopolitics.

The great US navy and air force are not able to dominate Iran, that’s not Trump’s fault but he was warned and chose to ignore it, and if Trump now dares to send ground forces it really won’t go well for them.

Trump’s constant stream of threats has been called and the US has been caught out as being far weaker on the world stage than they had been projecting.

What Trump should do from here is to agree to sanctions relief for Iran and a reduction in the role of US bases in the Gulf to defence only and to agree to Russia taking oversight of Iran’s civil enrichment program (Russia has always been strongly against nuclear weapons proliferation).

Iran may well agree to those terms, they had agreed to much less just before the conflict started.

As for the US, they really do have a major problem with Trump and really do need to accept that the future will be multipolar.

That is going to mean a decreasing role for the US dollar and those excess dollars coming home and the resulting inflation will cause major economic headaches but not as much as WWIII would.


From first video below:

What Trump Doesn’t Want You to Know About the U.S-Iran War




Why This Oil Price Shift May Not Reverse Even If Hormuz Opens | Skip York