GBPAUD - M30 - 16.03.2026

The Asian session opened with a small gap to the downside. The gap itself was not particularly significant, but it pushed price slightly lower while still remaining within last Wednesday’s value area — the session that confirmed the continuation of the broader downtrend on both the daily and weekly timeframes.

Initially, I expected the move to extend lower and continue the bearish momentum. However, buyers stepped in aggressively around 1.87700, creating what now appears to be an inventory adjustment. This reaction suggests that the prior short positioning may have become stretched.

From the current perspective, the reaction at that level introduces the possibility of a weekly corrective phase, with price potentially moving higher during today’s session.

Additionally, tomorrow’s AUD Cash Rate Statement (17.03.2026 — 05:30) could provide the catalyst for a more meaningful move if volatility expands around the announcement. For now, my bias leans toward a temporary corrective move higher and my idea fails if price loses 1.8770 again and especially accepts below 1.8740.