The US team is meeting with the Ukraine team in Florida, talks are said to be ‘difficult’ but ‘productive’. Gone from the Ukraine delegation is Yermak who previously led the delegations and was a constant block to any movement on the Ukrainian side.
The US team must, after a whole year, be fully aware of Russia's terms, what they will and definitely won’t accept.
Putin has delayed his trip to India to meet the US delegation if it arrives in Moscow, possibly as early as Tuesday.
The US team surely will not bother to go if they cannot get major concessions from the Ukrainians. If the Ukrainians are not ready to concede concessions yet then the peace plan meetings will end in Florida and whatever’s going on in the battlefield will continue for a while longer yet.
If there is a decision to accept the plan on Tuesday we could see major moves in the markets, we could also see big swings just on rumours alone.
If the a peace plan is accepted by all then;
Indices are likely to rise as risk comes off with decreasing geopolitical uncertainty.
Oil, which has seen supplies threatened for some time as well as fixed sanctions should see price lowering as fears of supply are eased.
USD may fall as well due to money moving out of the safe haven and back into indices.
Meanwhile on the Battlefronts the Russians have entered Huliapole in Zaporizhzhia from the north, east and south. The AFU seems to be abandoning their positions. Huliapole was never really fortified as it was not considered particularly defensible.
The Russians have also entered the town of Hryshyne north of Pokrovsk in Donetsk, the town was used by the Ukrainian army as a launch point for their counter attacks on Russian positions in Pokrovsk and around Myrnohrad.
Still waiting for the Russian army HQ to confirm the complete capture of Pokrovsk but in the meanwhile the Russian army has formed a 7 km long corridor just north of Pokrovsk running west east that the Ukrainians would need to traverse under heavy fire in order to escape Myrnohrad encirclement.
Yet even more news on Yermak’s forced resignation. As I posted several days ago Yermak said he was going to fight on the front ‘because he was a good and decent man’ which I laughed at.
But it turns out he may join the army after all. Apparently there is a law which says that anyone who signs up will have any investigations hanging over them stopped while they serve.
Yermak must have plenty of friends in high places in the army so a cushy position well out of the way may suit very well.
CrossTalk Bullhorns: Kiev in crisis
