17.07.2025

At first glance, we may think EURUSD is preparing for a move lower — it's trading below the 20 EMA on the Daily, and that retest looks complete.
You’d naturally ask:
“Is this the start of a trend correction on the Weekly? Should we start looking for sell opportunities on lower timeframes like H4, H1, or M15?”

And honestly, that’s a fair question — the market is showing bearish signs:

Price is below the 20 EMA,

Momentum looks weak,

And there’s clear rejection from a key supply zone above.

So yeah, the bearish case is definitely there — especially for short-term trades.

But here’s the thing… If we look closer at the H4 structure and the Weekly backdrop, it starts to look more like EURUSD is entering a Consolidation/Distribution (C/D) phase — not a clean trend reversal just yet.

Hmm? Yes, there may be some short setups forming, and sure, you could trade them within the range. But no, this doesn’t look like a clear breakdown just yet, at least not to me. More likely, EURUSD is stuck in a distribution or consolidation phase, where price fakes both sides before committing to a direction.

Personally, I’d treat this as a range for now.
Let’s wait and see — especially if you’re thinking about going short.
Liquidity traps are likely everywhere in this kind of zone, so caution is key.