So maybe you've heard about that term. It refers to the false intuition that gamblers have that if they bet on red for instance, and one or more black comes out, then there is more chance for the next draw to be red (because if so many black come out, certainly it has to be red soon)

it is called "gambler's fallacy" because this is totally wrong of course. Statistically, doesn't matter if 10 or 100 blacks are drawn, there is always the same probability for a red to come out next, and this probability is always 50%.

But what about trading strategies ? Strategies have a higher winrate than 50%. So is "the gambler's fallacy" true as well for >50% strategies ?

well I tested every possible outcome of a strategy, using 10 trades each time:


what we can conclude from this chart is that the winrate is NOT important, what is important is the number of consecutive losses
a strategy with lower consecutive losses will see its winrate improve greatly (if that amount is 1 then the strategy will have a 100% winrate))

so the "Gambler's fallacy" is NOT true for strategies, it depends on more than that
Jeff