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Re: A Question about Confluence Exits

ionone, Fri Aug 05, 2022 9:34 pm

ok so to find out if confluence plays a role in raising the win rate of a system, I designed this simple tool : confluence test

it uses RSI and CCI in very a simple trading system.
You can select RSI, CCI or the confluence of both.
also two different exits : first indicator (whichever one comes first), or both indicators in conjonction

here are some results (default settings) :
  • pair : GBPUSD
    RSI : 69.03%
    CCI : 67.34%
    Confluence (first exit) : 68.80%
    Confluence (both exits) : 69.24%
  • pair : USDJPY
    RSI : 66.81%
    CCI : 65.40%
    Confluence (first exit) : 65.80%
    Confluence (both exits) : 65.38%
  • pair : AUDCAD
    RSI : 68.57%
    CCI : 69.64%
    Confluence (first exit) : 67.16%
    Confluence (both exits) : 68.14%
  • pair : CADCHF
    RSI : 71.37%
    CCI : 69.05%
    Confluence (first exit) : 68.57%
    Confluence (both exits) : 71.24%
  • pair : EURAUD
    RSI : 65.11%
    CCI : 67.58%
    Confluence (first exit) : 64.00%
    Confluence (both exits) : 65.49%

so overall we see that win rate isn't really improved and that if we opt for confluence then it's best to wait for both strategies to have outputed exit signals before exiting.
it seems to be closer to a mean between both systems than a clear improvement, even if sometimes the win rate is higher than both


Jeff
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