Anyone trading USD pairs should keep this in mind too. Most of all the Manufacturing Index of -12 is huge, especially in the light of the fact that roughly 70% of the GDP comes from the Service Industry anyway. The manufacturing sector thus is extremely weak. But that's the one that actually produces value. And jobless claims should not be on the rise in summer. Of course it is all the fault of China.
Besides this, also keep in mind that India does mega trade deals in Rupees and China does the same in Yuan. The Saudis sent Biden home empty handed. Thus oversupply of Feds printed money will start showing.
And inflation is growing fast.
Any interest rise will be pure cosmetics and the effect short lived. You have seen what the Euro did.

This by no means a prediction, just food for thought.