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Re: XARD - Simple Trend Following Trading System

optionhk, Thu Mar 24, 2022 10:13 pm

optionhk wrote: Thu Mar 24, 2022 4:46 pm Hi Chris,
Thank you again for your help.

1. I like Xard's spirit of achieving a 100% increase in margin equity . If the margin is 10% of the contract value, then basically the returns should be 10% of the contract value, which is not that difficult if you strictly adhere to money management rules, which can be stretched by a trader like Xard or any trader who understands the importance of aligning with the market that can come only from at least 15 years experience. I have 20 years of self-directed experience starting with MT3.
It is entirely feasible from my own experience in DAX40 equity index trading. I have not tried other indices so far.

I myself have achieved it several times, but I am not able to rein in my brain to have the kind of consistency results I can have. Xard's trading system helps a lot . What is missing in my business plan is a Money Management plan that works with Xard's system.

My confidence comes from my observations of 1 minute hippo like price jumps.

2. Using small size grids (non-directional) during sideways movements, I realised what we think are small ranges and untradeable as part of random movements, are not so.
I used an indicator to compare movements of 5 candles in 1-minute TF. Based on my naked observation I requested an Excel programmer like you to make a probability study to log the kind of hippo jumps being made by the prices in consolidation zones.

On the basis of statistics, I deduced that the Average Daily High Low or Open Close range is like condensed milk while 1440 minutes of trading is used as milk. 100% of milk boiled leads to less than half per cent of ADR (condensed milk) .
The spreadsheet generating MT4 indicator is attached here. It is designed in such a way that data is captured in real-time (if the index is 0) and can be used for trading itself. If an Excel expert can manipulate by introducing filters and making data sets linking times, duration and pip sizes, statistics relating to pullback can be captured, for instance, the frequency of pullbacks effected in certain hours and with certain regularity and with certain average sizes by defining the thresholds in terms of pips and minutes. Similarly, the frequencies of Sideways or consolidation zones can be logged by defining thresholds of what is consolidation /sideways zone sizes.

I use Semaphore to observe roughly what I subjectively think is small or medium or large pullback by observing the chart. Which is by intuition and totally subjective.


3. Can you kindly combine the two spreadsheets to help in managing compounding returns and address both compounding as well depreciation of equity. It will help a lot in (through money management and positions control) managing trading or reversing/stopping the process of losing in a systematic way when unexpected events like the war affect a trader's psyche.

The idea is to remain in the game in spite of setbacks. When the going is good, boost confidence and equity by compounding and increasing the volume of the positions (not the size of lots). At the same time not ignore the eventuality of running into rough weather when conditions turn adverse and lead to drawdown or losses. It can happen to even a 20-year-experienced trader like me. And happens several times in a quarter.

The focus is on a fixed amount of positions (same contract size and with a fixed lot size) Lots can be increased in case of wins and reduced in case of drawdown/loss.
Win and Loss to be defined in terms of Amount or % of the Equity (or new starting balance)

Size of each Position: Amount/per cent of Starting Balance (defined by the user)
Numbers of Positions to be increased by -------(number) after wins occur in ---------------(number of positions).
Number of positions to be decreased by --------(number) after drawdowns occur in -------
.(number of positions)
Size of Individual position % or Equity % termed as Drawdown/loss

Example ;

I trade ------% (3%) of my account at any time until 3 positions of a size in % or amount in a row are winners.

I then increase it to -----------%(5%) of my Equity (amount treated as 100%).
------- (number of trade) One loss and I revert to 3%.
Two losses and I revert to 1.5%.
Three or more go back to 1% of the account and stay there until I can figure out what I was missing.
Once I have achieved 2 wins in a row again, I go to 3% of the account and restarts the compounding process

.
This is my today's sideways trading performance of FDS @1 euro tick futures. Broker is Interactive Brokers.
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