But it never is about belief, is it?
On the monthly you can see what's going on.
So, at the moment, the rational thing to do is: wait until the outer boundaries are touched and then enter (on a much lower TF), after there was (strong) rejection.
(As for the rest: first you need a clear TL-break, i. e. price close outside the TLs on the Monthly)
[end of January was the last touch of the lower TL - "therefore"(?) price has been moving up since]
