Another look at retail client sentiment (positioning) and as to why most don't make money, here is the current chart showing the broker FXCM retail client positioning for the last 3 month. Retail have been trying to 'pick the top' and going short on the S&P 500 and getting stopped out continuously for the last 3 months.

Most new retail clients blow their account within 3 months, there's the reason right there.