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NFP: 196k vs 177k expected

Jimmy, Fri Apr 05, 2019 11:35 pm

US Non Farm Payrolls: 196K (est 177K)

Non-farm payrolls for March 2019

  • Prior was +20K (revised to +33K)
  • Estimates ranged from 145K to 277K
  • Two month net revision +14K
  • Unemployment rate 3.8% vs 3.8% expected
  • Participation rate 63.0 vs 63.2% prior
  • Avg hourly earnings +0.1% vs +0.3% exp
  • Avg hourly earnings +3.2% y/y vs +3.4% exp
  • Private payrolls +182K vs +177K exp
  • Manufacturing -6K vs +10K exp (first decline since Oct 2016)
  • U6 underemployment 7.3% vs 7.3% prior

The headline number will relieve a bit of angst after the poor February print but the earnings numbers are poor. For stock markets, this is a bit of a goldilocks number because you have a decent economy without the threat of hikes because of rising wages. However, it's a negative for the dollar because it underscores that the Fed is done hiking for the cycle.

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