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How good is Fibonacci?

Krelian99, Sun Sep 10, 2017 9:11 pm

Please read first my post before commenting things like "It's no HG at all!!!11" or other stupid one-liner. Who can read and calculate is clearly at an advantage. THX

FX is a numbers game: Risk/Reward, expectations in %, prices and values, round numbers and Pivots as Sup/Res just to call a few - everywhere numbers, but when it comes to Fibonacci, there are many beginners who say that it is useless, hocus-pocus or a in the best case a self-fulfilling prophecy. As evidence you always hear: "When you draw it on a given chart, you will ever find something, but you can't use it live."
On the first glance it may be right, but the point is Fibonacci is used in many approaches that professionals use like simple Sup/Res drawing, target identification in Elliot Waves theory and Market Profiling and in Harmonic Patterns, anyway. Imagine the indices like DOW and DAX building all-time Highs one after another. How you can know to which new all-time-high-point the trend is likely to go? Projections? They are also based on Fibonacci. How can EW-users can predict the target impulse wave 3, 5 or C and this often on the point? I mean no guessing or huge zone, but really small zones for TP and reverse for SL? Yes, Fibnacci and nothing else. If you want also combine it with Pivots and round numbers (Murray Math I haven't tried). Please also read here: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/05/advfibonacci.asp

Fibonacci Levels

Which are the Fibo-Levels we need (which the market reacts to)? Surely, there are some, but we need only the important ones:
  • 0.236 (nt/nt+3),
    0.382 (nt/nt+2),
    0.618 (nt/nt+1),
    0.786 (=sqrt(0.618)),
    1 (nt/nt), ;)
    1.272 (=sqrt(1.618)),
    1.618 (nt+1/nt),
    2.618 (nt+2/nt),
    4.236 (nt+3/nt),
and the levels related to 2:
  • 0.5,
    1.414 (=sqrt(2)),
    and 2.
nt is a given Fibo number and nt+x the xth next number in the fibo series:
1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, 987, 1597, 2586 ...

Image

You see the symmetry in the Fibo ratios? That's why I don't use numbers like 0.764 (=1-0.236) or 0.854 and also because off the market reactions fit less to them. The number two is also an important number in the markets, see Ocean indicators, therefore.

Fibonacci clusters

The market moves harmonically, so you find Fibo levels are everywhere. For finding Sup/Res zones one Fibo retracement isn't that purposeful (we all know that), so let's use two and three different ones. Where two or three levels of these retracements lying narow together we have a cluster. Different traders may see different things going on on the chart. These clusters are very likely the intersections of the most traders and therefore represent heavy obstacles. Pure coincidence? Try it forward and backward.
Now merge them to zones. One other point for those who say markets walk randomly (RNG): Draw those Fibo cluster zones back in history (as far as you can, maybe till the year 1997) and see what we have there. You may be flabbergasted.

I must confess I'm no fan boy, but one who see it more as a self-fulfilling prophecy. In this point I'm pragmatic and democratic and what works obviously very good and has high synergy to my other stuff I take into my system.
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