- Data due at 1230GMT
- Inflation data due from Canada on Friday - previews
A couple of previews of the retails data:
HSBC
We expect retail sales to decline in August through a combination of small declines in retail prices and retail sales volumes. Overall, we look for retail sales to decline by 0.2% month-on-month. With motor vehicle sales expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month, we look for retail sales excluding autos to decline by 0.4% month-on-month. We expect retail sales prices to drop by 0.1%, largely due to an expected 1.0% decline in gasoline prices. Thus, real retail sales are expected to decline by 0.1%, with a 0.2% rise in real motor vehicle sales being offset by a decline in real retail sales excluding autos
RBC
We see a 0.2% m/m decline in nominal retail sales in August. This is driven by expected declines of about 1% m/m apiece for both gasoline station receipts (on lower prices) and auto sales. Excluding those two items, core sales should rise 0.2% m/m, but the risks are to the downside, as it was up 2.3% cumulatively in the three months to July. Retail volumes are expected to match the 0.1% m/m decline seen in July. Such an outcome would leave them up 1.9% annualized in Q2, which matches our consumption forecast for the quarter.
