I stumbled upon a message a few days ago that said that only systems with a Profit Factor of minimum 1.6 will be profitable live
under 1.6 and you will have breakeven system at best

so I thought a lot about it, and I realized that if you have a system that makes small profits again and again, it won't work live, because trades live aren't as perfect as on paper (slippage ,requotes, differences in price execution)

so to do so, we need to make trades that are long (in bars). I would say maybe 20 - 50 bars for 1 trade

but now that I realized that, I don't understand how it's possible to predict a trade that is that long

it seems impossible to me

the prerequisite being that, a longer a trade is (in bars) the harder it is to get a winning trade
for example, if you got a random system with a TP of 15 points, and a SL of 1000 points, you will have a very high winrate.

so the bigger and bigger the TP, the harder it is to predict, right ? makes sense ?

but then HOW

how is it possible to predict at such a distance ?

i'm lost guys, thanks for any help

Jeff

ionone wrote: Fri May 03, 2024 1:54 am

i'm lost guys, thanks for any help

Jeff

3 great sayings everyone knows and no one listens too.

'Crawling around in front of the steamroller picking up pennys.'

Meaning, will just get you killed eventually so don't bother.


'You just need one good trade'.

Meaning you really do just need one good trade a day. So look back at each day and find that one good trade then try to develop basic rules that would have allowed you to get in while also keeping you out of the many bad entries of the day. Yes it can be done because more and more traders getting each of their boxes checked and then getting in was exactly what made it the 'one good trade'.


'Let the winners run but exit losers early'

Don't sit waiting for every trade to go to the moon (but end up watching it come back and stop out instead). Dream trades are so rare as to be not worth considering. So control your risk with a hard stop and then manually trail your stop when a trade takes off. The aim is to stay in as long as possible but without giving it all back.

'

great answer
how many indicators do you use in confluence to "filter out" the bad trades ?

ionone wrote: Fri May 03, 2024 10:30 pm great answer
how many indicators do you use in confluence to "filter out" the bad trades ?

You need to consider the whole bag as an individual identity which is why different systems don't really work across all markets, time frames or chart platforms.

So I am not interested in 2 way markets like FX and stick to just indices and mostly Dax. Indicators I use Renko which is really just a price smoother then add in a broad MA to identify the longer term trend and a shorter MA to highlight when price is stretching away from the longer term MA. I would also be looking for abnormal volume at that point showing accumulation, all in the direction of the longer term trend and typically after a pullback.

Sticking to trend trading helps (me) filter out bad trades as does avoiding consolidation.

Ogee wrote: Fri May 03, 2024 11:33 pm You need to consider the whole bag as an individual identity which is why different systems don't really work across all markets, time frames or chart platforms.

So I am not interested in 2 way markets like FX and stick to just indices and mostly Dax. Indicators I use Renko which is really just a price smoother then add in a broad MA to identify the longer term trend and a shorter MA to highlight when price is stretching away from the longer term MA. I would also be looking for abnormal volume at that point showing accumulation, all in the direction of the longer term trend and typically after a pullback.

Sticking to trend trading helps (me) filter out bad trades as does avoiding consolidation.

I get it you trade very "traditionally"

indices has bullish biases, this seems to me like cheating lol

but some think that you cannot profit from markets other than stocks and indices, that it's simply impossible

ionone wrote: Sat May 04, 2024 2:14 am I get it you trade very "traditionally"

indices has bullish biases, this seems to me like cheating lol

but some think that you cannot profit from markets other than stocks and indices, that it's simply impossible

It's all traditional, there's only 3 ways to play this, either buy the failed dip in a trend or range play up and down during consolidation or try to pick major reversal points. That's it.

They each have their merits and each need a great deal of skill and experience to achieve results.

And when it comes to bots I presume nothing has changed in that trend trading bots lose everything when the market ranges and range trading bots lose everything when the market trends. Bots being as good as humans when it comes to being able to tell the difference when markets transition between the two, as in not being very good at all.